Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe948103861ea713d2b8e7aaa2caf760eda75630be4dd300bfcbf9de0138690e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 11c | 1,142$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.23 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 11c | 978.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.45 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 79c | 516.22$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.09 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 80c | 487.51$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 16c | 396.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 54c | 311.17$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…891ebacked No | 6c | 292.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 53c | 275.18$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 62c | 243.89$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 68c | 239.44$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed No | 25c | 224.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 72c | 197.47$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked No | 12c | 174.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 69c | 168.55$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 76c | 152.46$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 74c | 137.55$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 132.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 23c | 129.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 44c | 124.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…286cbacked Yes | 79c | 123.95$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked No | 29c | 118.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 50c | 113.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 15c | 109.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde3c…1c50backed No | 10c | 103.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 85.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 62c | 78.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…13f3backed No | 21c | 77.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 21c | 75.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 73.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b6…e6d9backed No | 14c | 73.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…5f7ebacked No | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 20c | 70.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 70c | 67.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 45c | 67.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 38c | 66.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 29c | 61.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed No | 42c | 58.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 48c | 56.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 68c | 54.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 36c | 54.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45be…0f0bbacked No | 34c | 53.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 41c | 48.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa78b…52f1backed No | 24c | 45.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 69c | 43.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…1075backed No | 48c | 39.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 54c | 39.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 45c | 37.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 51c | 35.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked Yes | 57c | 35.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 46c | 34.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 73c | 33.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 33c | 33.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 75c | 32.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 31c | 32.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0858…835dbacked Yes | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a00…929bbacked Yes | 69c | 30.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 76c | 30.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…cef2backed Yes | 77c | 30.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…e915backed Yes | 77c | 27.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ef…5546backed Yes | 73c | 26.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 73c | 25.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…4a18backed Yes | 42c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 79c | 24.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 73c | 23.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed No | 44c | 23.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…86cabacked Yes | 62c | 21.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed Yes | 64c | 21.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 72c | 19.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…4f55backed Yes | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 72c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes | 75c | 13.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.