Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc32ecaf415868343256349079a4c5d9067aa7733c4c69c4945e49b50defd3a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7e2…b1a9backed No | 0c | 3,714$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 554.38$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.96 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 34c | 507.58$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.19 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 351.81$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 24c | 256.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.23 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38de…60f0backed Yes | 38c | 219.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 79c | 210.45$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 15c | 189.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.36 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 176.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.77 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 174.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.23 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked No | 79c | 170.9$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.01 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 21c | 139.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 20c | 124.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.68 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 16c | 115.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…873cbacked Yes | 21c | 104.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 16c | 103.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.63 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 19c | 102.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 80c | 99.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed No | 74c | 99.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 11c | 96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 21c | 91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 44c | 89.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…c9b8backed Yes | 28c | 88.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 14c | 85.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 35c | 71.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 16c | 69.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 20c | 69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 30c | 66.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ab…c17ebacked Yes | 29c | 63.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 33c | 60.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 59.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…e28bbacked Yes | 23c | 58.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 29c | 55.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…3b0ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c52…0d1abacked Yes | 41c | 49.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fb…94e2backed Yes | 42c | 47.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…8b83backed No | 73c | 44.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4c…631cbacked Yes | 49c | 44.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80cd…213dbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 80c | 31.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 61c | 25.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…a8f1backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 78cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or higher on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.