Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08e1f3d0ced7410c5292dd4fd875fde68a334ff4be87a83b38fb5435e58928eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 490.65$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.26 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 10c | 299.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 296.04$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 29c | 282.18$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fb…94e2backed No | 77c | 206.67$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3847…df89backed Yes | 69c | 204.94$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 203.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 53c | 149.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 50c | 137.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…ce5ebacked Yes | 39c | 126.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 72c | 125.41$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 33c | 116.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 110.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38de…60f0backed Yes | 57c | 110.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 109.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed No | 77c | 106.21$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 28c | 96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 39c | 90.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 41c | 87.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…c9b8backed Yes | 46c | 68.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…8ca1backed No | 59c | 50.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 42c | 50.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 44c | 49.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 29c | 47.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 49c | 44.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cd…213dbacked Yes | 57c | 40.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 47c | 40.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 39.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 36c | 37.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 42c | 36.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe91a…a33ebacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…a9e6backed No | 60c | 35.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 80c | 32.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 43c | 31.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 73c | 30.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 61c | 29.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 71c | 29.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 53c | 28.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4755…a87abacked No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 80c | 22.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 67c | 21.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 17.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on February 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or higher on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.