Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc4bf25c8d59b7c2ce55acec181d68079296fc17dbe877382c0b89dc8e80244d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 2,000$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.69 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 54c | 864.98$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 68c | 700$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 569.19$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 483.37$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.63 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 409.98$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.81 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 68c | 328.82$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.9 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 58c | 282.18$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.52 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 35c | 240.65$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.03 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…f229backed Yes | 45c | 208.47$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 39c | 150.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 45c | 145.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 339 | 43.1%146 W · 193 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 38c | 132$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 57c | 121.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 726 | 20.4%148 W · 578 L | -46.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 117.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 68c | 115$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 113.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 45c | 101.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 378 | 43.7%165 W · 213 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 98.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 67c | 71.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 60.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 52c | 50.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 461 | 62.3%287 W · 174 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 66c | 48.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 63c | 47.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 45c | 43.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 38.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 64c | 38.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 37.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 36c | 36.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed No | 62c | 36.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 35.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 35.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 45c | 34.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 37c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 32.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 41c | 32.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 64c | 32.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 57c | 29.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10e…f0c3backed Yes | 46c | 29.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 65c | 24.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1,926 | 62.8%1,210 W · 716 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed No | 63c | 23.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 66c | 21.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 67c | 20.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 59c | 19.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 66c | 19.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 69c | 19.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78a…2190backed No | 60c | 19.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 68c | 17.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 90-91°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 92-93°F on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.