TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,896
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,926

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,896 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over10c1,888$190 inLost-$189.638,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under69c299.3$205 inWon+$94.1212,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over24c176$42 inLost-$42.2499924.6%246 W · 753 L-70.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bbb…4a56backed Under49c142.27$70 inWon+$72.566248.4%30 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over51c132.22$67 inLost-$67.438,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under71c105$75 inWon+$30.451,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under26c42.34$11 inWon+$31.333,84142.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf1c…ec86backed Under49c30.03$15 inWon+$15.253948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over68c26.52$18 inLost-$18.024,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over54c22.89$12 inLost-$12.479,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e94…776bbacked Over46c22.83$11 inLost-$10.518444.6%82 W · 102 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under80c22.47$18 inWon+$4.495,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under58c20.19$12 inWon+$8.482,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under76c15.43$12 inWon+$3.7210,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.