TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Milwaukee Brewersof St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,814
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,226

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,814 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers77c1,388$1,064 inWon+$323.5312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed St. Louis Cardinals19c674$131 inLost-$130.821,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed St. Louis Cardinals19c514.21$98 inLost-$97.779255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed St. Louis Cardinals19c514.16$98 inLost-$97.691,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed St. Louis Cardinals19c514.16$98 inLost-$97.6973949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed St. Louis Cardinals19c514.16$98 inLost-$97.6997050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1440…1a39backed St. Louis Cardinals29c378.13$109 inLost-$108.662450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed St. Louis Cardinals19c205.69$39 inLost-$39.081,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals19c193.07$37 inLost-$36.686,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd030…f3f0backed St. Louis Cardinals19c128.53$24 inLost-$24.4211946.2%55 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed St. Louis Cardinals19c127.37$24 inLost-$24.21,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1980…3340backed St. Louis Cardinals19c114.29$22 inLost-$21.7132450.9%165 W · 159 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9760…ee64backed Milwaukee Brewers78c111$87 inWon+$24.42742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick68cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Milwaukee Brewers76c100$76 inWon+$24.443954.7%240 W · 199 L+30.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xde1b…5710backed St. Louis Cardinals19c77.11$15 inLost-$14.6510145.5%46 W · 55 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers77c26.09$20 inWon+$6.139,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa06…74c3backed Milwaukee Brewers80c25$20 inWon+$53759.5%22 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Milwaukee Brewers80c24.96$20 inWon+$4.9946952.5%246 W · 223 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e32…0502backed Milwaukee Brewers78c21.57$17 inWon+$4.7955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc37e…9e64backed Milwaukee Brewers77c20.78$16 inWon+$4.7829553.2%157 W · 138 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Milwaukee Brewers78c18.14$14 inWon+$3.991,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18d2…e9c3backed Milwaukee Brewers80c14.98$12 inWon+$310768.2%73 W · 34 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ae3…93c3backed Milwaukee Brewers80c14.98$12 inWon+$36065%39 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.