MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdceb35c34e31cd0b716916a6fc5839a06bffa909738c6a06ea3d95d1a409cdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 8,774$3,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,832.78 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 53c | 5,579$2,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,621.97 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a6…a6d3backed Under | 64c | 2,656$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Under | 53c | 2,460$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.03 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 47c | 1,050$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.5 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 52c | 1,040$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.19 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 42c | 900.71$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.09 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 48c | 800$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 48c | 572.25$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.37 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Over | 47c | 526.65$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.53 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Under | 54c | 451.85$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.85 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 52c | 412.4$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.95 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 53c | 404.62$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.17 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 53c | 404.62$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.17 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 42c | 398.97$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.53 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Over | 47c | 329.29$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.77 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Under | 53c | 314.41$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.77 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 29c | 307.45$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.16 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 211.35$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.45 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…386fbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 93.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 82.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 47c | 80.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 47c | 79.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 53c | 68.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…1a39backed Over | 20c | 53.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 47c | 40.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 53c | 21.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 70c | 14.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.