MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe60d7a4f669478b9c3f44cc5f6be4d74b4bbc3ef33fa5f4d9429d8228bf3e115
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 11,198$7,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,265.6 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 10,843$3,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,150.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 2,390$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.35 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 1,179$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.66 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 528$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.17 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 414.23$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.98 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed St. Louis Cardinals | 28c | 412.49$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 331.96$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.82 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 280.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 280.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 280.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 280.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 224.46$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 210.19$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 161.63$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 80c | 135.49$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 104.65$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 102.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 102.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed St. Louis Cardinals | 18c | 89.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 88.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e32…0502backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 71.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 70.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…60d0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 60.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Milwaukee Brewers | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…e71dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 42.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 42.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 35.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 32.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.