Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C or higher on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc509e4a2fb826c40d4bc16f753d73bf7a47fc429f1194e0153e075fb99695a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 46c | 600$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 55c | 513.76$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.89 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…7ce5backed No | 37c | 494.17$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.16 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 11c | 105.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.51 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 58c | 103$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 45c | 95.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 75c | 66.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 23c | 65.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 36c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 50c | 62.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 26c | 60.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…fd8dbacked No | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 47c | 57.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 76c | 57.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 40c | 50.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac2…33c1backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 43c | 42.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 42.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 49c | 41.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…7401backed No | 36c | 39.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…91d5backed Yes | 54c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 44c | 32.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f54…682fbacked Yes | 40c | 31.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 62c | 31.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 78c | 29.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 43c | 29.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…f3f3backed No | 63c | 28.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 55c | 26.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 63c | 26.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked Yes | 57c | 23.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe116…96c2backed Yes | 65c | 23.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…789dbacked No | 43c | 23.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 75c | 20.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 56c | 18.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x872f…ab24backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C or higher on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.