Tennis · resolved market
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Juan Estevez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc97fc3ce734045765e2feddad7f8824f08d26f14b0e5485aa63529fbec7688f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Joaquin Aguilarof Joaquin Aguilar, Juan Estevez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Joaquin Aguilar | 39c | 827.62$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.85 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Juan Estevez | 57c | 807.25$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.84 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Joaquin Aguilar | 40c | 709.08$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.3 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Juan Estevez | 60c | 688.4$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.04 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Juan Estevez | 59c | 559.9$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.82 | 521 | 52.2%272 W · 249 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Juan Estevez | 61c | 548$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5898…6950backed Joaquin Aguilar | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Juan Estevez | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Juan Estevez | 61c | 342.74$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.07 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Joaquin Aguilar | 40c | 329.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.1 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Joaquin Aguilar | 44c | 306$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.36 | 301 | 32.9%99 W · 202 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Joaquin Aguilar | 40c | 299.67$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.45 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Juan Estevez | 57c | 198.16$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.12 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Joaquin Aguilar | 42c | 191.88$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.74 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Joaquin Aguilar | 40c | 162.23$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Joaquin Aguilar | 40c | 140$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Juan Estevez | 57c | 122.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd729…7ef2backed Juan Estevez | 62c | 97.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Juan Estevez | 59c | 93.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Juan Estevez | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 678 | 52.1%353 W · 325 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Juan Estevez | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…f2ffbacked Joaquin Aguilar | 41c | 53.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 292 | 37.3%109 W · 183 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Joaquin Aguilar | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Joaquin Aguilar | 41c | 47.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Juan Estevez | 57c | 47.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…43e0backed Joaquin Aguilar | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +3,098.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Juan Estevez | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 222 | 30.6%68 W · 154 L | -25.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf60a…d7a2backed Juan Estevez | 59c | 33.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Juan Estevez | 60c | 32.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…17c5backed Joaquin Aguilar | 39c | 31.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Joaquin Aguilar | 40c | 30.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Joaquin Aguilar | 57c | 28.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Juan Estevez | 55c | 24.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Juan Estevez | 58c | 21.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Juan Estevez | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Juan Estevez | 59c | 19.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Juan Estevezthis page
- Set Handicap: Aguilar (-1.5) vs Estevez (+1.5)Aguilar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.