NFL · resolved market
Will the Bears beat the Rams by 3 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc98144eadfabd76dd8a236338d3150eeff88927bb7b3f79062692808cac3bf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Bears, Rams
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed Bears | 52c | 159.37$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Rams | 44c | 141.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Bears | 55c | 136.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…79c6backed Rams | 48c | 105.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Rams | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x684e…03fcbacked Bears | 56c | 92.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4181backed Rams | 45c | 70.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Rams | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Bears | 53c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Bears | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Bears | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Bears | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bears beat the Rams by 3 or more points?this page
- Will the 49ers beat the Patriots by 11 or more points?49ers won
- Will the Bengals beat the Panthers by 5 or more points?Bengals won
- Will the Cardinals beat the Commanders by 4 or more points?Commanders won
- Will the Chiefs beat the Chargers by 7 or more points?Chiefs won
- Will the Eagles beat the Buccaneers by 2 or more points?Bucs won
- Will the Jets beat the Broncos by 8 or more points?Broncos won
- Will the Packers beat the Vikings by 3 or more points?Vikings won
- Will the Ravens beat the Bills by 3 or more points?Ravens won
- Will the Steelers beat the Colts by 3 or more points?Colts won
- Will the Texans beat the Jaguars by 7 or more points?Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.