Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Montana Grizzlies vs. Idaho Vandals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcac058bb5cd1088526433cf3bd4980a6f8c46d7325f91b31cc5de7b9a63147c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montana Grizzliesof Montana Grizzlies, Idaho Vandals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Montana Grizzlies | 38c | 3,308$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,055.44 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Idaho Vandals | 20c | 2,008$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.07 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Idaho Vandals | 63c | 1,601$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.33 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Idaho Vandals | 61c | 820.08$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Idaho Vandals | 59c | 730.56$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.76 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Idaho Vandals | 65c | 692.43$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.08 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Idaho Vandals | 11c | 589.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Idaho Vandals | 56c | 373.54$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.41 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Montana Grizzlies | 39c | 248$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.28 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Idaho Vandals | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 88 | 14.8%13 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Montana Grizzlies | 38c | 149.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.07 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Idaho Vandals | 44c | 131.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 368 | 45.7%168 W · 200 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Montana Grizzlies | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Montana Grizzlies | 50c | 99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Idaho Vandals | 12c | 91.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Idaho Vandals | 25c | 79.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Montana Grizzlies | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Idaho Vandals | 63c | 67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…f107backed Montana Grizzlies | 36c | 56.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 423 | 27.2%115 W · 308 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Montana Grizzlies | 66c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Idaho Vandals | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda0b…ac7dbacked Idaho Vandals | 35c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Montana Grizzlies | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 614 | 46.1%283 W · 331 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…5408backed Idaho Vandals | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f5…8be3backed Montana Grizzlies | 73c | 39.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 127 | 33.9%43 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Montana Grizzlies | 34c | 39.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Idaho Vandals | 63c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Idaho Vandals | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…361bbacked Idaho Vandals | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 98 | 21.4%21 W · 77 L | -17.7wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Idaho Vandals | 61c | 20.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Idaho Vandals | 67c | 18.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Montana Grizzlies vs. Idaho Vandalsthis page
- Montana Grizzlies vs. Idaho Vandals: O/U 151.5Over won
- Spread: Idaho Vandals (-3.5)Montana Grizzlies won
- Spread: Idaho Vandals (-4.5)Montana Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.