UFC · resolved market
Kubanza vs. Alvidrez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcbe160fe2d8b9a7bf19b499a633c430fdc59e9343db2c50efe2dcd513eb2a76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alvidrezof Kubanza, Alvidrez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Alvidrez | 30c | 2,771$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,939.49 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Kubanza | 70c | 2,032$1,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.42 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Kubanza | 70c | 414.29$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Alvidrez | 29c | 399.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.99 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Kubanza | 71c | 359.15$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Kubanza | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Alvidrez | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Kubanza | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kubanza | 67c | 281.82$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.82 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Kubanza | 70c | 256.75$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Alvidrez | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Alvidrez | 33c | 181.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Alvidrez | 29c | 157.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Kubanza | 69c | 145.27$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Kubanza | 70c | 133$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…f165backed Alvidrez | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe7…4b7ebacked Kubanza | 71c | 112.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Alvidrez | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465b…41c3backed Alvidrez | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Alvidrez | 31c | 77.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Alvidrez | 31c | 64.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Alvidrez | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Kubanza | 69c | 59.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Alvidrez | 31c | 55.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Kubanza | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kubanza vs. Alvidrezthis page
- Costa vs. PinasPinas won
- Jourdain vs. DiasJourdain won
- Seck vs. CampbellCampbell won
- Vagabov vs. da SilvaVagabov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.