UFC · resolved market
Costa vs. Pinas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa385f0698d5e8e958e454cfcefb54cc9e56d4f20699098e403047b9d5fb62ace
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pinasof Costa, Pinas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Pinas | 56c | 11,399$6,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,015.69 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Costa | 44c | 9,647$4,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,244.68 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Costa | 47c | 4,183$1,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,948.38 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Pinas | 55c | 4,080$2,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,835.37 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Costa | 45c | 3,170$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.3 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Costa | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Pinas | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Pinas | 57c | 1,980$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.57 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Pinas | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Costa | 44c | 1,333$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.33 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Costa | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Costa | 51c | 816.15$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Pinas | 51c | 732.69$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.69 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Costa | 44c | 600.14$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.19 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Pinas | 58c | 600$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Pinas | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465b…41c3backed Costa | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Costa | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Costa | 44c | 329.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.7 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e194backed Costa | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Costa | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Pinas | 55c | 275.46$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.96 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Pinas | 52c | 240$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Costa | 53c | 220$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Pinas | 49c | 206.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Costa | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Costa | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Pinas | 53c | 155.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Costa | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Costa | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked Costa | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Pinas | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Pinas | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Costa | 42c | 43.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Costa | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Pinas | 52c | 41.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Costa | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Costa | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Costa vs. Pinasthis page
- Jourdain vs. DiasJourdain won
- Kubanza vs. AlvidrezAlvidrez won
- Seck vs. CampbellCampbell won
- Vagabov vs. da SilvaVagabov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.