UFC · resolved market
Jourdain vs. Dias
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddff4e7cdf9f20d61ae26a77161a2b1d2f33d6b3de9e79c6551bbc41a71a20c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jourdainof Jourdain, Dias
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Dias | 36c | 4,080$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.2 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Jourdain | 69c | 3,674$2,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.79 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Dias | 35c | 3,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Jourdain | 64c | 3,367$2,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.33 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed Jourdain | 65c | 2,417$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.11 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Jourdain | 67c | 916.55$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.46 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Dias | 32c | 910.11$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.35 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Jourdain | 64c | 812.11$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.1 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Dias | 33c | 758.97$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.46 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Dias | 32c | 621.88$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Dias | 31c | 487.63$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.17 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Dias | 32c | 464.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e194backed Dias | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Jourdain | 68c | 338.24$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.24 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Jourdain | 66c | 310.03$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.1 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Jourdain | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Jourdain | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Dias | 33c | 191$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Dias | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Jourdain | 69c | 140$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Jourdain | 65c | 110.77$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Dias | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Jourdain | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Jourdain | 65c | 70.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Jourdain | 68c | 60.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Dias | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Jourdain | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Dias | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x458c…95e1backed Jourdain | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Jourdain | 64c | 27.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3778…8604backed Jourdain | 70c | 20.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jourdain vs. Diasthis page
- Costa vs. PinasPinas won
- Kubanza vs. AlvidrezAlvidrez won
- Seck vs. CampbellCampbell won
- Vagabov vs. da SilvaVagabov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.