MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcd49eaef44e8231530c2331374f939a23e88771735660910a257dcba3a139af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 69c | 8,158$5,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,516.3 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 31c | 6,536$2,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,026.16 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 30c | 2,895$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.14 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 66c | 406$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.13 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 69c | 390$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 69c | 353.52$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.89 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 32c | 326.8$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 305.58$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 65c | 263$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.56 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 242.56$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.65 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 69c | 211$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 30c | 166.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 71c | 123.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 32c | 117.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 30c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8eb…94c4backed Over | 30c | 36.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Under | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 226 | 52.2%118 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 70c | 21.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 71c | 18.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 71c | 14.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.