MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe03b1d9b0bb6b38b47bdc308fbdefe9c8c5230c4ae465234786cff7f547acaed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 22,339$10,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,459.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 53c | 13,126$6,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,181.18 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 54c | 9,000$4,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,169.99 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 53c | 4,630$2,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.16 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 53c | 2,558$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.26 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 2,301$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.47 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 48c | 2,113$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.12 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 48c | 1,968$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.5 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 52c | 1,667$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.16 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 1,569$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 1,557$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.96 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 47c | 1,466$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.12 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 19c | 1,225$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.92 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 49c | 1,035$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.06 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 49c | 1,035$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.06 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 865.05$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.57 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 47c | 690$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.3 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 643$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 48c | 558$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.58 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 468.1$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.27 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 48c | 385.4$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 30c | 385.4$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 47c | 236.93$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 65c | 205$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…d143backed Over | 48c | 202.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 47c | 195$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…01c9backed Under | 53c | 180$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 63c | 174.21$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 53c | 136.69$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 47c | 122.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 47c | 121.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 46c | 119.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 49c | 115.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Over | 49c | 101$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 53c | 100.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 50c | 91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 48c | 78.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 48c | 56.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 76c | 55.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 50c | 47.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Under | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 190 | 41.1%78 W · 112 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 49c | 42.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 24.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 49c | 21.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 48c | 21.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 20.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.