Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Khachanov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcdc07111d52eea208ac17c01264f741c4ee4272ad5207356d98a50ced895d4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Khachanovof Alcaraz, Khachanov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Khachanov | 21c | 2,237$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.31 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Alcaraz | 68c | 1,310$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.47 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Khachanov | 26c | 983.82$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.7 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…591bbacked Khachanov | 29c | 824.15$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Khachanov | 44c | 670.31$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.31 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Khachanov | 15c | 372.87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.99 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Alcaraz | 74c | 295.89$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.28 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Khachanov | 22c | 271.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.09 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…f6e0backed Alcaraz | 66c | 226.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Khachanov | 18c | 198.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.68 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Alcaraz | 78c | 175.83$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.83 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Alcaraz | 60c | 166.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 273 | 46.5%127 W · 146 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Khachanov | 14c | 148.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 625 | 34.4%215 W · 410 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc88c…14f1backed Khachanov | 77c | 145.24$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Alcaraz | 71c | 140.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Alcaraz | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35ea…99bcbacked Alcaraz | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 240 | 60.8%146 W · 94 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a30…8363backed Alcaraz | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Khachanov | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Khachanov | 34c | 56.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f1…19a0backed Alcaraz | 77c | 40.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 517 | 36.9%191 W · 326 L | -39.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Khachanov | 52c | 38.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 542 | 49.3%267 W · 275 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…1f19backed Alcaraz | 31c | 33.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.32per pick | 26cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Alcaraz | 70c | 30.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d72…d32cbacked Alcaraz | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…b817backed Alcaraz | 64c | 29.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Alcaraz | 66c | 25.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…8305backed Khachanov | 77c | 21.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Alcaraz | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Khachanovthis page
- Alcaraz vs. Khachanov: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Khachanov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Khachanov: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Khachanov: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen KhachanovAlcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Khachanov (+1.5)Khachanov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.