Tennis · resolved market

Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Khachanov (+1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd766235b07dad0c03c973be8ed4bb54f198257025cfe6060c3b647a04815ffc9

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Khachanovof Alcaraz, Khachanov
Resolved: Feb 19, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,818
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,481

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,818 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Khachanov	27c	9,733$2,646 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,087.4	185	37.3%69 W · 116 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Alcaraz	73c	7,190$5,258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,257.99	190	56.3%107 W · 83 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Alcaraz	72c	6,083$4,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,400	369	68%251 W · 118 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	68cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Khachanov	35c	3,602$1,251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,351.11	7,018	43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L	+124.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Khachanov	28c	2,485$694 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,791	1,809	43.8%793 W · 1,016 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Khachanov	27c	1,850$499 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,350.49	110	45.5%50 W · 60 L	+5.7wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Khachanov	27c	1,145$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$833.97	4,082	39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L	+93.1wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1fd…abf9backed Alcaraz	69c	1,000$691 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.31	87	62.1%54 W · 33 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Alcaraz	68c	897.7$614 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$614.11	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x346a…892bbacked Alcaraz	26c	790.73$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.37	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Alcaraz	73c	684.56$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.43	588	59%347 W · 241 L	-9.2wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d3d…7a79backed Alcaraz	72c	553.43$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	67	62.7%42 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	66cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce6…2e69backed Alcaraz	77c	530.58$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Alcaraz	73c	500$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365	465	53.8%250 W · 215 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedcd…a1c7backed Alcaraz	72c	463.86$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.67	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	66cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Alcaraz	71c	425.49$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	2,561	63%1,613 W · 948 L	-10.2wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Khachanov	39c	397.97$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.87	1,123	50.3%565 W · 558 L	-19.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Alcaraz	76c	392.94$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	285	43.5%124 W · 161 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Khachanov	36c	300$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192	625	45.4%284 W · 341 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed Alcaraz	68c	293$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	389	51.9%202 W · 187 L	-16.1wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc930…64d9backed Alcaraz	73c	274.82$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	63cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc208…e74fbacked Khachanov	32c	249.2$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.24	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Khachanov	45c	220$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	1,266	34.2%433 W · 833 L	-43.2wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Khachanov	33c	174.17$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.17	287	24.4%70 W · 217 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddc…83b9backed Alcaraz	72c	170.83$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	129	51.9%67 W · 62 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Khachanov	29c	162.11$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.56	2,343	51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L	+95.2wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Alcaraz	74c	160.99$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.08	380	48.4%184 W · 196 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…8465backed Alcaraz	72c	159.72$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa373…b6dcbacked Khachanov	33c	151.65$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.65	543	48.1%261 W · 282 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf002…275ebacked Alcaraz	65c	151.52$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.75	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Khachanov	29c	150$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.8	69	18.8%13 W · 56 L	-11.0wins	-0.16per pick	35cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Khachanov	28c	149.99$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.94	884	55%486 W · 398 L	+37.4wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2dd7…a8adbacked Alcaraz	67c	149.69$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Alcaraz	72c	138.97$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	197	44.2%87 W · 110 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7c…3a6abacked Alcaraz	74c	134.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	64%16 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	65cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Khachanov	33c	109.38$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.75	44	15.9%7 W · 37 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd8…39b1backed Alcaraz	71c	105.11$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.15	182	48.9%89 W · 93 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Khachanov	24c	101.32$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77	3,884	35%1,358 W · 2,526 L	+92.8wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x411c…bb45backed Alcaraz	68c	97.42$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.53	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-3.1wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3cff…b344backed Alcaraz	35c	95.28$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.2	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef27…bd29backed Alcaraz	62c	88.61$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	63	54%34 W · 29 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6d7…32c1backed Alcaraz	58c	85.86$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Khachanov	33c	79.06$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	619	53.3%330 W · 289 L	+18.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77d2…0af8backed Alcaraz	69c	72.8$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	36	50%18 W · 18 L	-3.5wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-21%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6508…1077backed Alcaraz	45c	72.32$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.59	584	38.2%223 W · 361 L	-8.5wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed Alcaraz	71c	70.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	92	63%58 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Khachanov	28c	70.25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.25	3,270	13.8%450 W · 2,820 L	-549.1wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x0f97…a9b3backed Khachanov	29c	69.21$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.21	262	27.9%73 W · 189 L	-11.3wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae9…facabacked Alcaraz	79c	60.68$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.79	198	56.1%111 W · 87 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Alcaraz	58c	57.02$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.82	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Alcaraz	69c	55.1$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.02	4,765	47%2,238 W · 2,527 L	-82.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf1…2957backed Alcaraz	74c	52.97$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.14	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-2.4wins	-0.34per pick	63cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5700…a854backed Alcaraz	59c	50.85$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	255	44.3%113 W · 142 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Alcaraz	25c	50.04$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.44	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	-3.8wins	-0.10per pick	24cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x979b…dd0abacked Alcaraz	60c	46.65$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.82	40	57.5%23 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a5…a5f9backed Alcaraz	75c	42.91$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.18	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	69cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Khachanov	33c	38.98$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.11	1,414	41.1%581 W · 833 L	-21.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x387e…ca5dbacked Alcaraz	61c	38.85$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.63	100	46%46 W · 54 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d4…3691backed Alcaraz	74c	33.78$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-5.2wins	-0.16per pick	60cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x26ec…da98backed Alcaraz	73c	27.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	111	65.8%73 W · 38 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	66cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52a4…7fe3backed Alcaraz	71c	15.53$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	35	77.1%27 W · 8 L	+3.8wins	+0.11per pick	66cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0ac…0b32backed Alcaraz	65c	15.48$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-2.5wins	-0.15per pick	62cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e5b…4ef4backed Alcaraz	75c	14.81$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.11	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Khachanov (+1.5)this page
Alcaraz vs. Khachanov: Match O/U 21.5Over won
Alcaraz vs. Khachanov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Alcaraz vs. Khachanov: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
Alcaraz vs. Khachanov: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen KhachanovAlcaraz won
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs KhachanovKhachanov won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Khachanov (+1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event