Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of November 10 above $270?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcdfd000d7496bc4f51701087ddb29b6d9c440dbcfa9d3a44f3edda0ba66d3d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 7c | 450$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 47c | 204$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb400…5604backed No | 54c | 199.13$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.53 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 56c | 185.38$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.66 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 6c | 171.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32de…5b27backed Yes | 68c | 150.17$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 54c | 148$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.21 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 106$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe4…256abacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 50c | 87.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bde…507abacked Yes | 51c | 66.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 22c | 66.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7b…ec0bbacked No | 54c | 62.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -6.8wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…158bbacked No | 38c | 39.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f39…93d3backed No | 42c | 35.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 49c | 28.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca0e…5189backed Yes | 64c | 17.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc007…fba2backed Yes | 71c | 16.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…98d2backed Yes | 64c | 16.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of November 10 above $270?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of November 10 above $245?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of November 10 above $250?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of November 10 above $255?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of November 10 above $260?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of November 10 above $265?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of November 10 above $275?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of November 10 above $280?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of November 10 above $285?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of November 10 above $295?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.