Serie A · resolved market
Will Fiorentina win on 2025-09-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcf1d41815e8f0226c11bb88db88d9561014e81a31877d527b70c781132397d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b3…f830backed Yes | 7c | 18,070$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…c177backed Yes | 8c | 16,094$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 10,604$1,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,567.8 | 2,575 | 45.6%1,174 W · 1,401 L | +12.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 75c | 5,411$4,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.47 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 23c | 2,550$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.5 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked Yes | 9c | 911.11$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 77c | 790.16$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.74 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 75c | 668.36$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.64 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Yes | 22c | 599.98$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 25c | 510.25$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.17 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 28c | 504.06$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 22c | 499.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed Yes | 5c | 391$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 73c | 358.27$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.73 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 22c | 337.61$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed No | 77c | 263.49$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 27c | 244$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 24c | 209.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 24c | 209$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 138 | 40.6%56 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed No | 78c | 205.13$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab8…6485backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f84…f1c4backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 75c | 179.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 24c | 175$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 77c | 143.75$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5626…0fe6backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed Yes | 26c | 95.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 75c | 80.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…f8b9backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 71c | 68.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 71c | 68.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed No | 78c | 53.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 75c | 43.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 29c | 41.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…c7c5backed No | 74c | 32.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…48f7backed No | 75c | 19.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bc…3667backed No | 78c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9e97backed No | 78c | 14.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fiorentina win on 2025-09-13?this page
- Will Fiorentina vs. Napoli end in a draw?No won
- Will Napoli win on 2025-09-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.