Tennis · resolved market
Centurion: Luca Castelnuovo vs Semen Pankin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd0087ab374bac1fff5da9c7028c2b4fb0959efb7a14d1e92ff9609952f32b52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Semen Pankinof Luca Castelnuovo, Semen Pankin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Semen Pankin | 55c | 1,166$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.78 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…f2abbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 35c | 1,009$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.22 | 433 | 34.9%151 W · 282 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Semen Pankin | 65c | 968.26$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.61 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Luca Castelnuovo | 19c | 893.7$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.21 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Luca Castelnuovo | 51c | 848.86$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.92 | 659 | 52.5%346 W · 313 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Semen Pankin | 73c | 745.53$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.31 | 372 | 30.4%113 W · 259 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127b…ac34backed Luca Castelnuovo | 22c | 553.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Luca Castelnuovo | 52c | 502.66$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.05 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Luca Castelnuovo | 24c | 409.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 47%55 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Semen Pankin | 63c | 366.83$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.02 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…78eabacked Semen Pankin | 80c | 325.2$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 1,040 | 58.2%605 W · 435 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 35c | 314.42$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.38 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Semen Pankin | 77c | 277.36$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Semen Pankin | 59c | 235.61$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.45 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Luca Castelnuovo | 17c | 199.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 61c | 185.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.32 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Luca Castelnuovo | 46c | 153.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 232 | 47%109 W · 123 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Semen Pankin | 57c | 142.8$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Semen Pankin | 54c | 140.36$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…643cbacked Semen Pankin | 75c | 134.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…9430backed Semen Pankin | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Semen Pankin | 50c | 115.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Semen Pankin | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Semen Pankin | 52c | 95.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40e…9addbacked Semen Pankin | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 386 | 64%247 W · 139 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Luca Castelnuovo | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Semen Pankin | 55c | 86.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Semen Pankin | 57c | 78.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Luca Castelnuovo | 60c | 75.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Luca Castelnuovo | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa2…9c82backed Semen Pankin | 77c | 65.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Semen Pankin | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -21.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed1…18a8backed Semen Pankin | 58c | 62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Luca Castelnuovo | 47c | 61.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Semen Pankin | 66c | 61.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Luca Castelnuovo | 61c | 60.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 423 | 50.8%215 W · 208 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…f998backed Semen Pankin | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Semen Pankin | 72c | 52.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Semen Pankin | 40c | 52.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Semen Pankin | 54c | 52.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…5be4backed Semen Pankin | 77c | 52.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Luca Castelnuovo | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831d…0705backed Semen Pankin | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 265 | 63.8%169 W · 96 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Luca Castelnuovo | 46c | 49.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 856 | 34.2%293 W · 563 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Luca Castelnuovo | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Luca Castelnuovo | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 234 | 27.4%64 W · 170 L | -40.1wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…dea8backed Semen Pankin | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4166…4f83backed Semen Pankin | 54c | 39.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…4c8abacked Semen Pankin | 54c | 35.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…73e3backed Luca Castelnuovo | 46c | 32.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Luca Castelnuovo | 48c | 28.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Luca Castelnuovo | 47c | 28.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Semen Pankin | 50c | 28.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Semen Pankin | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Semen Pankin | 53c | 27.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Luca Castelnuovo | 45c | 27.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked Luca Castelnuovo | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Luca Castelnuovo | 51c | 26.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1,132 | 50.3%569 W · 563 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…47e6backed Semen Pankin | 63c | 25.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 194 | 74.7%145 W · 49 L | +34.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…dcd6backed Semen Pankin | 73c | 24.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Semen Pankin | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 423 | 53.7%227 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.