Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd2b2c85f0584c73814bb915de06470b044cfd5a5b79debbd490611bf1110b26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zero Tenacityof AVULUS, Zero Tenacity
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x622a…2b59backed AVULUS | 1c | 6,666$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 24c | 3,407$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.51 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Zero Tenacity | 70c | 3,008$2,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.39 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked AVULUS | 26c | 632.63$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.58 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked AVULUS | 30c | 591.4$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.42 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed AVULUS | 29c | 297.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed AVULUS | 22c | 224.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Zero Tenacity | 78c | 193.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Zero Tenacity | 49c | 188$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked AVULUS | 11c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked AVULUS | 33c | 88.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd227…0e69backed Zero Tenacity | 68c | 70.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked AVULUS | 18c | 68.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Zero Tenacity | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb88…b1d7backed AVULUS | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Zero Tenacity | 48c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Zero Tenacity | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Zero Tenacity | 48c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…9cf6backed AVULUS | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Zero Tenacity | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Zero Tenacity | 56c | 44.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Zero Tenacity | 75c | 43.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed AVULUS | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed AVULUS | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed AVULUS | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked AVULUS | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…2caebacked AVULUS | 47c | 34.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed AVULUS | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked AVULUS | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked AVULUS | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed AVULUS | 52c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f80…e222backed Zero Tenacity | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Zero Tenacity | 51c | 25.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…e0d4backed Zero Tenacity | 80c | 25.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed AVULUS | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked AVULUS | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…6b2dbacked AVULUS | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Zero Tenacity | 66c | 20.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f3…1fc1backed Zero Tenacity | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Zero Tenacity | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Zero Tenacity | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…6fbdbacked Zero Tenacity | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…5a01backed Zero Tenacity | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 WinnerZero Tenacity won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 WinnerZero Tenacity won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.