World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd352ff13d819a06139ae398fdffea6cb6c17bbbc2fb0eef09d36d30238a475e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 75c | 388.96$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 228.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.8 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 29c | 177$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 149.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 28c | 117.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.86 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 117.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.86 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 109.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 31c | 82.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 81.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 71.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 65c | 59.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 35c | 57.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 30cpaid | +236.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 34c | 54.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 53.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 53.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x411b…9e28backed No | 76c | 52.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 50.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 28c | 50.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…08dfbacked No | 72c | 48.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 27c | 43.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb1…ab41backed No | 72c | 36.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 35.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 29c | 35.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 29c | 34.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 28.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d0…d84bbacked Yes | 41c | 28.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 45c | 25.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 58c | 23.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 47cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 64c | 20.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 19.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed No | 71c | 14.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.