Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd81c8b41402f1f266a0eea243540a569c5afe2a0445c0d322a09cb823cf4c75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 23c | 671.04$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.22 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 450.68$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.59 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 75c | 373.58$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.39 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 294.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 16c | 289.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 31c | 257.51$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 60c | 240.22$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 230.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 223.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 68c | 147.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 144.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 68c | 142.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 127.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 127.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 28c | 116.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 86.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 30c | 82.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 30c | 66.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 64c | 66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 32c | 64.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 55.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe266…03b5backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 46.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…dd64backed Yes | 32c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 33c | 42.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 69c | 36.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 33.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 34c | 33.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 33.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 30.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 69c | 27.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 75c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 75c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…75f8backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 74c | 23.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 21.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 67c | 17.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 68c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.