Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe95ca7898727f040be02c3b221d1b4c6967d0055a2244fa3fe5205543fe904ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 46c | 385.34$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.21 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 236.07$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 230.61$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 22c | 226.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.2 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 179.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 28c | 174.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 37c | 144$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 60c | 140.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 123.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 116.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 112.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 59c | 109.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 106$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 104.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 56c | 100.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 46c | 91.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 34c | 88.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 77c | 78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 77.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…9862backed Yes | 25c | 72.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 46c | 71.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 67.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 65.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 59.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 51c | 56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 53c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 52.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 50.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…54bcbacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd417…9438backed No | 67c | 49.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 48c | 48.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 27c | 47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 46.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 39c | 43.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 65c | 38.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 42c | 37.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 37.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 35.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 35.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 64c | 32.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…75f8backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 57c | 25.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…245dbacked No | 52c | 25.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 74c | 23.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 20.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 19.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 73c | 19.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 77c | 15.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 14.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 14.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.