Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd898a669a1a0b9368bf8c19f7043babf954cb2cbadb383349c4cb34383999fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4da…44d9backed Yes | 0c | 6,855$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 3c | 1,060$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 64c | 499.91$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.96 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 377.19$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.26 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 5c | 349.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 345.92$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 31c | 281.44$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 51c | 271.91$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.24 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 269.15$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 257.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 65c | 254.3$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 235.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 233.93$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.91 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 222.75$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 26c | 215$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 181.84$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…880abacked Yes | 40c | 171.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 45c | 165$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…c00cbacked Yes | 33c | 164.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b41…df0bbacked Yes | 37c | 161.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 15c | 158.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4663…1273backed Yes | 42c | 152.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 25c | 146.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…27b9backed Yes | 43c | 143.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…4cccbacked Yes | 44c | 128.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 63c | 126$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c66…e4bfbacked Yes | 47c | 121.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 43c | 120$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeea…70b7backed Yes | 41c | 117.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 51c | 105.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd198…6569backed Yes | 43c | 104.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 42c | 103.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 78c | 101.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8d…066dbacked Yes | 36c | 100.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…c2a6backed Yes | 35c | 100.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 26c | 99.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 40c | 98.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931d…22b3backed Yes | 37c | 95.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 58c | 95.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…b414backed Yes | 42c | 94.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…b4a2backed Yes | 27c | 87.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…238cbacked Yes | 15c | 85.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…e789backed Yes | 48c | 81.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 78.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…c81abacked Yes | 34c | 76.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa046…ce38backed Yes | 35c | 75.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 28c | 66.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…416abacked Yes | 44c | 63.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…ae79backed No | 64c | 61.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdb…75dbbacked Yes | 42c | 60.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc041…411cbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32d…26a8backed Yes | 46c | 59.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 19c | 58.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…faa0backed Yes | 29c | 53.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…0977backed Yes | 48c | 50.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…7c4bbacked Yes | 43c | 46.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…10eabacked Yes | 25c | 46.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 45.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 38c | 44.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 66c | 42.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…dd68backed Yes | 46c | 42.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…16c5backed Yes | 46c | 42.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 25c | 41.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 66c | 40.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 31c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0628…4ae4backed Yes | 47c | 38.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ca…0d85backed No | 68c | 38.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…ca6dbacked Yes | 34c | 37.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 36.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaf…9a28backed No | 70c | 35.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc4…abd7backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e87…dfc2backed Yes | 33c | 34.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 47c | 31.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 45c | 30.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc8…b828backed Yes | 40c | 29.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2747…b25bbacked Yes | 45c | 28.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…036abacked Yes | 39c | 28.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0205…dc0cbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 46c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82b…8e81backed No | 74c | 24.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 70c | 24.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc3…a695backed No | 56c | 22.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 21.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 73c | 21.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…5845backed No | 58c | 19.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 58c | 18.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 59c | 18.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…260fbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.