Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0a946f720e8d0f46881a38d08207584a5c85428f4a393c4fc56e423a5e02f4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24c6…5587backed No | 78c | 1,253$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 38c | 1,190$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.75 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 21c | 1,026$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.04 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 12c | 849.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked No | 3c | 545.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 46c | 462.49$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 80c | 364.86$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 41c | 349.54$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.37 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0216…d434backed Yes | 50c | 325$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…3e02backed No | 50c | 325$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 293.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.93 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 69c | 249.81$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.4 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…76a2backed Yes | 49c | 239.04$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.78 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 40c | 217$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.73 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 211.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 59c | 200.94$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.72 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 37c | 195.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.32 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…5371backed Yes | 61c | 187.15$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 43c | 167.09$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 53c | 163.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 52c | 157.86$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 43c | 155.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.23 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 32c | 153.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.21 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 53c | 144.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 27c | 142.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 141.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.14 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 25c | 134.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 129.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.75 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…a62ebacked No | 79c | 126.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6c…744ebacked Yes | 45c | 118.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 118.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 113.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed No | 58c | 109.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 29c | 106.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed No | 60c | 106.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 29c | 100.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 31c | 100.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 100.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…661dbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb041…23a7backed Yes | 69c | 99.35$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaf…9a28backed Yes | 25c | 98.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 56c | 96.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 54c | 92.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 28c | 91.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 16c | 84.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed No | 71c | 84.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 30c | 81.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b41…df0bbacked Yes | 46c | 79.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ad…8851backed Yes | 53c | 75.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed No | 79c | 75.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 53c | 73.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 54c | 72.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 42c | 67.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 55c | 67.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…526cbacked Yes | 80c | 65.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…b6b0backed Yes | 76c | 65.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…a2fdbacked No | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 56c | 64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 59.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 58.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 58c | 58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 37c | 57.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 60c | 52.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 36c | 52.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…5845backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 50c | 49.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 24c | 48.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…b77dbacked Yes | 28c | 48.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes | 56c | 46.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 46c | 45.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 45c | 44.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…2136backed No | 48c | 41.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked No | 66c | 40.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 46c | 40.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed No | 63c | 39.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…a03abacked Yes | 46c | 35.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 34.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…ae79backed No | 65c | 32.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf724…c178backed Yes | 41c | 32.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 31.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 64c | 31.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…ab15backed No | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…23cabacked Yes | 78c | 26.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 26.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 42c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 56c | 24.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.