Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18046c227d7d3a0836b4bc3245830de2538d90d6ecb6b2373fb3e1811e8fdf77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 1,639$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.25 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 1,138$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 57c | 941.98$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.82 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 12c | 917.58$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.61 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9749backed Yes | 10c | 866.38$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 11c | 682.91$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 48c | 663.39$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.94 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 11c | 454.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 50c | 448.39$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.86 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 20c | 376.06$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 365.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 22c | 339.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed No | 77c | 330.21$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 30c | 321.84$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 314.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…5845backed Yes | 28c | 263.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 25c | 252.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 64c | 243.71$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.66 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 32c | 241.49$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 25c | 196.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 26c | 190.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 14c | 171.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 159.39$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 14c | 153.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 151.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…22e9backed Yes | 51c | 149.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 19c | 143.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 121.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdb…75dbbacked Yes | 21c | 119.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 50c | 116.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaf…9a28backed Yes | 22c | 112.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 27c | 112.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 19c | 107.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 78c | 106$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 47c | 101.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 17c | 99.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 26c | 95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 17c | 92.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…daadbacked No | 75c | 85.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 23c | 85.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 83.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 62c | 83.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…e422backed Yes | 64c | 78.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…3234backed Yes | 20c | 75.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 58c | 69.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…3853backed Yes | 16c | 66.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 29c | 59.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed No | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c0…f014backed No | 78c | 54.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed No | 71c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 77c | 51.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 30c | 50.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 41c | 49.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…23cabacked No | 73c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…a03abacked Yes | 30c | 46.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 77c | 44.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…b77dbacked Yes | 30c | 40.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 50c | 40.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 70c | 36.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 73c | 36.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 79c | 31.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…526cbacked Yes | 58c | 30.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…2136backed No | 66c | 30.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…ae79backed No | 70c | 29.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 29.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 54c | 29.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 77c | 28.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 79c | 25.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff8a…f11ebacked No | 70c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 64c | 24.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…beb2backed No | 52c | 20.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…022abacked No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…a8f1backed No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 78cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed No | 59c | 19.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c0…0271backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.