Mls · resolved market
Minnesota United FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddae5dedea15aeb5045459f2ce302420030ebca566bd31240f533b43ba8ce88a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 19c | 7,143$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.11 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 74c | 5,605$4,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.73 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 20c | 2,236$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.99 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 24c | 1,830$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.07 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 79c | 1,257$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.12 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5af8…db25backed Over | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 64c | 380.7$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.74 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 39c | 268.84$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.99 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…fc21backed Under | 39c | 237.8$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.06 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 77c | 213.81$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 51c | 196$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 24c | 196$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 41c | 179.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Over | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 61c | 101.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…7c68backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 61c | 84.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…df19backed Under | 50c | 82.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 56c | 59.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Under | 40c | 47.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed Under | 39c | 41.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 37.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…740bbacked Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…97f1backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 32.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Under | 40c | 31.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Under | 80c | 28.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 40c | 27.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 40c | 26.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota United FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Minnesota United FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Minnesota United FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Minnesota United FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 0.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)Vancouver Whitecaps FC won
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-2.5)Minnesota United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.