MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddb0b7778ba7dfe76bd9948c2d1cdb69a5341cbcbbb8e842afd5028afa596f60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 4,008$2,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.02 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 1,420$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.1 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 1,385$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.19 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 1,011$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.77 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 811.9$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.54 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 739.2$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.68 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 694$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.84 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 614.38$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.72 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 606.12$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.16 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 495.8$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.28 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 492.8$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.12 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 477.99$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.98 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 417.58$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.21 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 369.6$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.84 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 234.62$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 180.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 173.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 157.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 152.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 141.44$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 116.63$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 100.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1d…7ff3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 57.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 51.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 50.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 48.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18a…b3dbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 44.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffae…adaebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 43.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 589 | 43.1%254 W · 335 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…6518backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 38.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 35.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…cf14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 30.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da7…762abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 24.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 20.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a9…7876backed Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 17.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee BrewersTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.