MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c1055c3cc5aa79e27139431dc56836a11a8bf9b84d18ef208576d8d319656c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Over | 46c | 5,114$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352.34 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 54c | 1,850$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 54c | 1,555$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.29 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Over | 47c | 1,065$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.55 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 1,051$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.56 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…b6ffbacked Under | 53c | 903.52$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 54c | 839.07$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.97 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 54c | 493.53$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.02 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 46c | 492.55$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.57 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7e…5fddbacked Under | 53c | 417.66$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.3 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 54c | 328.37$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.05 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 285$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.95 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 52c | 240$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Over | 46c | 171.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Under | 53c | 169.43$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 53c | 162$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 49c | 157.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 50c | 156.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 21c | 154.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 154.41$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 47c | 150.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…ca4ebacked Over | 46c | 133.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Under | 53c | 118.21$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 46c | 102.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…731cbacked Under | 52c | 96.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Under | 53c | 74.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 46c | 68.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 68.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 45c | 67.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 54c | 66.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6caa…4fb3backed Over | 46c | 53.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6c…e9a0backed Over | 46c | 53.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 47c | 48.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 47c | 27.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 55c | 27.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…18eebacked Over | 46c | 26.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…5be2backed Over | 46c | 26.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 46c | 25.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under | 54c | 21.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 55c | 20.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee BrewersTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.