TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa2f1…18ee

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Valorant, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Valorant at 56 out of 100; worst NBA at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2035%7 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Raptors vs. Pistonsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.33
1H Spread: Knicks (-0.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.18
Spread: Lakers (-16.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$13.89
76ers vs. Heat: O/U 245.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.31
Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Kings vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.75
Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.99
Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 222.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Raptors vs. Clippers: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Nets vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.29
Bucks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$10.15
Spurs vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+100%+$11
Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.75
Lakers vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$10.15
Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.99
Pacers vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.75
Spread: Lakers (-2.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.24
All 20 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-43.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Tennis — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bucharest Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Titouan Droguetbacked Roberto Bautista Agut · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.31
Credit One Charleston Open: Viktoriya Tomova vs Jennifer Bradybacked Viktoriya Tomova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$13.7
Credit One Charleston Open: Elvina Kalieva vs McCartney Kesslerbacked Elvina Kalieva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.71
Credit One Charleston Open: Solana Sierra vs Akasha Urhobobacked Solana Sierra · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.7
Bucharest Open, Qualification: Gabriel Ghetu vs Jay Clarkebacked Gabriel Ghetu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Split: Josip Simundza vs Eliakim Coulibalybacked Josip Simundza · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Dubrovnik: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lisa Pigatobacked Lisa Pigato · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Naples: Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Jacopo Vasamibacked Jacopo Vasami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Miami Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauffbacked Coco Gauff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$6.45
Dubrovnik: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Lina Gjorcheskabacked Lina Gjorcheska · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.99
Miami Open: Iva Jovic vs Talia Gibsonbacked Iva Jovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.99
Miami Open: Ethan Quinn vs Jiri Leheckabacked Jiri Lehecka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.29
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Fucsovics (+1.5)backed Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$17.5
All 13 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick64cpaid+38.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Valorant — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Nuxeria Esport vs F9 EICAR (BO3) - VCL France: Revolution Stage 2 Regular Seasonbacked F9 EICAR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.78
Valorant: Mandatory vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - VCL EMEA: Playoffsbacked Mandatory · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$7.08
Valorant: Fennel vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 1backed Fennel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$9
Valorant: Mandatory vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffsbacked Mandatory · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$6.74
Valorant: Mir Gaming vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seasonbacked Gen.G Global Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$4.71
Valorant: MIBR Academy vs INTZ (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Playoffsbacked INTZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$6.74
Valorant: TBK Esports vs 2GAME Esports (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Playoffsbacked 2GAME Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$6
Valorant: TYLOO vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - China Evolution Series Act 1 Playoffsbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$5.41
All 8 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+51.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SHL: Roegle vs. Faerjestadbacked Faerjestad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.65
Devils vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$16.91
Penguins vs. Islandersbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$14.67
AHL: Hartford Wolf Pack vs. Toronto Marliesbacked Toronto Marlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.29
All 4 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 165.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.66
Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-1.5)backed Vanderbilt Commodores · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.35
Spread: Houston Cougars (-9.5)backed Texas A&M Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.62
All 3 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win on 2026-03-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$21.27
Will Singapore win on 2026-03-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Shem Rock (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$16.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Qingdao Eagles vs. Beijing Royal Fightersbacked Qingdao Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Vitória SC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
St. Louis City SC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Perth Glory FC vs. Melbourne City FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.