MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b6178bc16c1bc85259d6727a06c66162020e8ea533c30c19594f60ba8e5678a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Toronto Blue Jays, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,018 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Toronto Blue Jays | 0c | 3,681$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 499.97$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.99 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 499.97$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.98 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 440.49$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.44 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 335$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.1 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 301.84$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.28 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 268$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.97 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 204.08$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 200.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 196$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 186.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 94.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 85.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…692ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 78.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 64.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…79afbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 62.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 50.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 41.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 39.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…e24cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 21.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…c7adbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 21.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…c851backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 21.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda1…e338backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…5be2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…18eebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 21.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 20.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…28abbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.