TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Hawksof Pistons, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,702 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f09…9312backed Pistons51c4,903$2,500 inLost-$2,5009547.4%45 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hawks49c4,043$1,981 inWon+$2,062.75,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fd5…9801backed Pistons51c980.59$500 inLost-$5005034%17 W · 33 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hawks49c752.07$369 inWon+$383.264,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Hawks49c678.98$333 inWon+$3462,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Hawks49c499.97$245 inWon+$254.982,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Pistons51c114.57$58 inLost-$5826545.3%120 W · 145 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Hawks49c105$52 inWon+$53.51,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd983…d92dbacked Pistons52c76.92$40 inLost-$4029844%131 W · 167 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda2a…4fecbacked Pistons25c72.99$18 inLost-$17.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Hawks50c62.09$31 inWon+$31.0490357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Pistons49c52.18$26 inLost-$25.771,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Hawks76c50.94$39 inWon+$12.091,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hawks48c31.1$15 inWon+$16.151,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a9c…c851backed Pistons51c26.97$14 inLost-$13.751741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc539…ca4ebacked Pistons51c26.96$14 inLost-$13.755143.1%22 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-25.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa2f1…18eebacked Pistons51c26.96$14 inLost-$13.752035%7 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf20…5be2backed Pistons51c26.96$14 inLost-$13.753151.6%16 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33ab…06d9backed Hawks55c24.16$13 inWon+$10.98250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Hawks51c21.6$11 inWon+$10.5893145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…1069backed Hawks54c20.37$11 inWon+$9.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Pistons50c20$10 inLost-$10.0530244%133 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.