TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,676

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,676 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2274…af9bbacked Over54c6,965$3,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,205.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9350…10b5backed Under49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under44c2,010$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.84,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Under46c1,700$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.9913148.1%63 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Over56c1,574$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.1611543.5%50 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under43c1,430$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.073,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under49c1,388$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.764,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed Over58c1,304$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.8815952.8%84 W · 75 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Under49c1,210$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.987049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb67e…d426backed Over51c1,100$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eab…7e13backed Over53c1,042$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.814152.5%74 W · 67 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33e9…39b0backed Over74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2607152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2416…61b3backed Over51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4902100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+94.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x497d…5f3abacked Over51c900$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4412100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under42c850.03$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.612,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under46c633.04$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.271449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe44c…f15cbacked Under46c542.54$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.572744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under29c532.45$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.218,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f79…f7f7backed Under46c499.94$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.819442.6%40 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under46c478.59$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.1587453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under46c447.54$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.084,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Over57c445.61$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.6121055.2%116 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Over60c418.81$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.819546.3%44 W · 51 L-11.2wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-24.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under43c412.04$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.472,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under44c396.17$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.182,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5302…0a6fbacked Over53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3611957.1%68 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64f7…32aabacked Over60c375$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.53154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Over60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3395452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over54c331.7$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.984150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Under25c306.76$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7615753.5%84 W · 73 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2fe…7558backed Over51c294.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.1214946.3%69 W · 80 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Over51c284$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.1628537.9%108 W · 177 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Under44c263.2$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.517643.2%76 W · 100 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…6d3bbacked Over60c256.67$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.671060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe11c…c7f7backed Over60c255.08$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.039260.9%56 W · 36 L+10.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x288a…768abacked Over60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001450%7 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under18c230$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.792,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Under44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10052146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under45c226$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.71,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Under45c222.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10043447.5%206 W · 228 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedcb…020fbacked Over51c216.65$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd62f…3b3cbacked Under49c214$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a39…c48cbacked Over51c213.39$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7968…3b25backed Under49c213$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6c…9a83backed Under47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004641.3%19 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b04…1d23backed Over51c206.93$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd518…4f19backed Under49c206$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0556…132abacked Over50c205$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.59346.2%43 W · 50 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d1…93b2backed Under50c205$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7c…b9b6backed Over51c202.61$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…e2bdbacked Under49c202$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x715a…4c63backed Under49c202$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Under44c201.09$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4855347.9%265 W · 288 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9295047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed Under45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa466…fabfbacked Over51c198.35$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f2…69aebacked Over51c197.57$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over57c197.12$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7641556.9%236 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1334…657bbacked Over51c193.02$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa382…0e07backed Under49c193$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ef…7c14backed Under49c193$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5c…2ee3backed Over52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.317444.6%33 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…6964backed Under49c190$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51a8…7a1bbacked Over51c189.07$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8e…9753backed Under49c189$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e25…d267backed Over51c188.43$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb10…da5abacked Under49c186$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06d3…9d25backed Over51c181.98$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6b…fb69backed Under45c178$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2db1…45e5backed Under46c173.91$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8024849.6%123 W · 125 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c29…5ce3backed Under46c172$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under44c164.15$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2360945.8%279 W · 330 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b71…80ecbacked Under46c163.04$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758545.9%39 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Over78c162.91$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.261,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0205…123bbacked Under45c158$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63e1…f744backed Under45c151.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.56540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c06…bbeebacked Under46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6913448.5%65 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff7f…bb30backed Under45c150$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.54637%17 W · 29 L-6.5wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over54c145.67$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.63,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Over56c143.34$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3421259.9%127 W · 85 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Under40c141$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.41,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55cf…d976backed Under46c141$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.86650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over56c133$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.081,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21da…31ebbacked Over55c129.09$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.094269%29 W · 13 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under33c124.45$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.783,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under44c119$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7923651.3%121 W · 115 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1591…3cc4backed Over53c113.81$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.812352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under45c110.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.81,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda60…595cbacked Under46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501250%6 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fa7…d4febacked Over56c107.14$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1410850.9%55 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7310…2b8fbacked Under47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-41.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b4…e861backed Over66c105.95$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.027047.1%33 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under34c105.95$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.022,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7521…c083backed Over57c104.63$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.994734%16 W · 31 L-6.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcc42…01b2backed Over58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4211651.7%60 W · 56 L-10.0wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-13.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Over60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4069337.8%262 W · 431 L+2.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Under47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4721843.6%95 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Over74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2626337.3%98 W · 165 L-1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under48c99.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9966143.4%287 W · 374 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.