TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$461,518

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $461,518 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 490 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9ec3…3cdcbacked Under49c61,500$30,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,3652650%13 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3c…6507backed Over51c31,627$16,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,129.77785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick50cpaid+73.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd3c0…6f15backed Over51c29,692$15,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,142.92580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+57.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Over52c29,126$15,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,145.532653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbbd…dc4abacked Under49c25,928$12,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,223.28875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+46.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Under50c25,000$12,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,574.11,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over20c24,393$4,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,919.794,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0694…22e6backed Under49c22,471$11,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,460.21875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+45.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x301e…ae75backed Over51c20,512$10,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,461.12771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+41.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over51c18,366$9,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,366.6624053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9a3…dc96backed Under49c17,518$8,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,934.18875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.26per pick50cpaid+52.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf6b1…6297backed Under49c16,935$8,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,636.85683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick49cpaid+73%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x095d…715fbacked Over51c16,621$8,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,476.71862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+26.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Over52c15,614$8,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,119.2217250.6%87 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10a5…484abacked Under49c14,003$6,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,141.53887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.36per pick52cpaid+70.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa34a…8da9backed Over51c13,310$6,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,788.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf0c1…8f55backed Under49c12,071$5,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,156.21785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick49cpaid+76.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x11be…f6cdbacked Over51c11,543$5,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,886.93683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+74.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Under49c10,033$4,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,116.8311543.5%50 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under48c8,482$4,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,410.621,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd83e…2be4backed Over51c8,205$4,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,184.551361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c75…329abacked Over51c8,000$4,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0805750.9%29 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Under48c7,765$3,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,037.4816249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x144e…eca0backed Under48c7,708$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,008.337451.4%38 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under48c7,593$3,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,941.584,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Under49c7,172$3,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,681.831,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under49c6,479$3,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,326.064,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…515bbacked Under49c4,945$2,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,521.95540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeaa…ccddbacked Under49c4,917$2,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,507.67450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc94d…b4f2backed Over51c4,457$2,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,273.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed60…ad42backed Over51c4,437$2,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,262.87250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8339…f5c8backed Under49c4,362$2,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,224.62450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3be6…1168backed Over51c4,342$2,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,214.42250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69b2…7d9dbacked Under49c4,112$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,097.12966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Over51c3,937$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00016640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x229a…0d63backed Over51c3,622$1,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,847.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed Under49c3,552$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,811.48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over50c3,176$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,587.973,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x549d…9e2cbacked Under49c2,925$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.75450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9010…af51backed Under49c2,910$1,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a75…95a2backed Over51c2,765$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.15425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe0…d909backed Over51c2,702$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.02540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x890a…22b2backed Over51c2,690$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.9250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c41…f9bebacked Over51c2,649$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c5…1b59backed Under49c2,616$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.16633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde3…0f46backed Over51c2,600$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd996…1fa3backed Under49c2,486$1,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.86771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd50…b86abacked Under49c2,485$1,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68e6…970abacked Under49c2,477$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.272100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1d9…cb8dbacked Over51c2,466$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,257.66250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6d6…be17backed Over50c2,446$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22310448.1%50 W · 54 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2aa4…87c1backed Over51c2,437$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.87333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18b8…c368backed Under50c2,415$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.945100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Over51c2,392$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.717850%89 W · 89 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf384…125dbacked Under49c2,351$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.01580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+58.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfef5…4ba6backed Under49c2,347$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196.971266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9f5…7d98backed Over51c2,325$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.75450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb809…ff45backed Under49c2,304$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b3…75cbbacked Over51c2,300$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x813b…7d75backed Over51c2,294$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd95…8e94backed Over51c2,292$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,168.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x960a…6e8cbacked Under49c2,285$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.35540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over19c2,255$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.418,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc33b…c48dbacked Under49c2,253$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.03580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+58.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67f4…f2dfbacked Over51c2,249$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Over51c2,237$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14170246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5af…c05fbacked Over51c2,210$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcae…ef67backed Under49c2,192$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.92475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+48.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0822…3cf9backed Over51c2,188$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x722f…5d78backed Over51c2,167$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40c2…32bcbacked Under49c2,153$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc57b…1455backed Under49c2,146$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.46580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+61.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc583…ce45backed Under49c2,129$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.79475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20e7…0255backed Under49c2,119$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.69580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+61.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3b2bbacked Under49c2,113$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.63540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde90…bababacked Under49c2,109$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.596100%6 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5fcd…49f4backed Under49c2,104$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.04560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3cd…83e4backed Over51c2,102$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b7…b429backed Under49c2,071$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.21785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.44per pick41cpaid+77.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd829…c5eabacked Under49c2,067$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.17650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1368…9621backed Over51c2,059$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa617…e801backed Under49c2,056$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.56683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick52cpaid+60.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf73b…1721backed Under49c2,038$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.386100%6 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7cc7…f537backed Under49c2,014$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.146100%6 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under54c2,009$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.33,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68a5…4b72backed Over51c1,980$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a45…6d5abacked Under49c1,979$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.29771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+43.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef1c…c8a0backed Over51c1,979$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.29540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40c…080cbacked Over51c1,977$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.27450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0031…add7backed Over51c1,977$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.27425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e95…3040backed Under49c1,964$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.647100%7 W · 0 L+3.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x00a0…bf4ebacked Under49c1,936$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.36757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5bd…e391backed Over51c1,927$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.77250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over52c1,926$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012341.5%51 W · 72 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9938…c516backed Over51c1,908$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd916…fdcabacked Over51c1,874$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.741060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc944…4004backed Over51c1,831$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.81757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cae…44c4backed Over51c1,830$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.3520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-62.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1c3…f2efbacked Over51c1,815$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.65520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.