TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,184

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,184 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe911…3d4ebacked Cavaliers33c697.42$233 inLost-$232.731,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat67c580.64$387 inWon+$193.445,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Cavaliers33c414.99$137 inLost-$136.849938.9%194 W · 305 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Heat66c257.66$171 inWon+$86.8126353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Heat68c154$105 inWon+$49.2877549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Cavaliers32c125$40 inLost-$4027138.7%105 W · 166 L+0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce8…63febacked Cavaliers41c122.98$50 inLost-$5012543.2%54 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Cavaliers27c42.56$12 inLost-$11.61,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2996…73debacked Cavaliers48c31.43$15 inLost-$1513744.5%61 W · 76 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbf0…4046backed Heat70c30$21 inWon+$98164.2%52 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9d…2269backed Heat68c20.12$14 inWon+$6.442157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Heat61c20$12 inWon+$7.893145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x692e…ee58backed Heat58c18.38$11 inWon+$7.7217428.2%49 W · 125 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.