NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe66e54e08db9d9cd753d16d3bb96433963ae46ab2f8e1b5006c68c08dd6ffc09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,101 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 1,412$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.98 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 30c | 800$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Over | 51c | 751.2$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.92 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 748$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.44 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 9c | 609.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 569.73$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.96 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7a…aff2backed Over | 55c | 562$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.35 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eab…7e13backed Over | 55c | 560$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.94 | 141 | 52.5%74 W · 67 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f79…f7f7backed Under | 46c | 499.97$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.99 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 45c | 416.52$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 386.88$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.21 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 54c | 377.19$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.91 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…94b9backed Under | 48c | 201$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Under | 45c | 199.76$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.51 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…8302backed Under | 48c | 198$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…fa57backed Over | 52c | 197.9$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e88…5c6cbacked Over | 52c | 195.1$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e00…c4e0backed Over | 52c | 193.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1eb…48f0backed Under | 48c | 192$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Over | 53c | 190.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 189.35$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2d…3259backed Over | 52c | 186.52$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb2…bec6backed Under | 48c | 182$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Under | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 248 | 49.6%123 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 120.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 53c | 103.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 49c | 98.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 67c | 88.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf433…2464backed Under | 49c | 81.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefcb…f64abacked Under | 51c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 47c | 62.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 54c | 45.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1473…3a3abacked Over | 55c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 46c | 43.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0922…d953backed Under | 49c | 36.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 53c | 30.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…7f4ebacked Over | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Under | 63c | 19.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Heat won
- Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Dean Wade: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Heat vs. CavaliersHeat won
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5Under won
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5Under won
- Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 243.5Under won
- James Harden: Points O/U 21.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Max Strus: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Max Strus: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.