TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Cavaliers: O/U 243.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,215

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,215 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3578…46f8backed Over50c2,961$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22b5…b3c4backed Under51c2,938$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88f3…f9fabacked Under51c2,919$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.31250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8824…01f7backed Under50c2,853$1,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e9c…b08abacked Over49c2,788$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,366.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6131…98cabacked Over49c2,778$1,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7407…3b86backed Over50c2,771$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x663e…d895backed Over50c2,751$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd46b…1ed2backed Under51c2,730$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9047…e2cdbacked Over49c2,535$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.1530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa225…71b7backed Under50c2,533$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1a8…7ef9backed Under51c2,505$1,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.452100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce22…33b3backed Under51c2,486$1,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.14250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6d6…be17backed Under52c2,446$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.4210448.1%50 W · 54 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xebd8…2579backed Over50c2,421$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce8b…19fcbacked Over49c2,385$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,168.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0594…fdedbacked Under51c2,306$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.94450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7133…8454backed Over49c2,303$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5689…6da1backed Under51c2,267$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.832100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb86d…8d3abacked Under51c2,265$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919b…6fdabacked Under51c2,220$1,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x271f…a473backed Under51c2,213$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.37250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over49c2,192$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.674,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3cc…4b07backed Under50c2,133$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2f4…e800backed Under50c2,133$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b3…70bcbacked Over50c2,111$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf99f…a57ebacked Over50c2,079$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec1e…590cbacked Over49c2,061$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda06…ed46backed Over49c2,056$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f3e…46a2backed Under50c2,055$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12e7…286ebacked Under50c2,051$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2486…3c31backed Under50c1,981$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd29…c0e2backed Under51c1,969$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.813100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa33f…716bbacked Over49c1,951$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59f7…9d6dbacked Over49c1,902$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2079…bc9cbacked Over49c1,861$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.8920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18b8…c368backed Under53c1,860$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.385100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5630…bed9backed Over49c1,820$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7b4…3d98backed Over50c1,766$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b41…78b2backed Over49c1,732$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.68450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6910…be85backed Over49c1,732$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a98…03cdbacked Under50c1,710$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8553100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf71…075abacked Under51c1,671$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.79250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31e3…c043backed Over49c1,641$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa92…1751backed Over50c1,616$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a2…8592backed Over49c1,578$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa13…16a2backed Under50c1,574$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa69f…63edbacked Under51c1,541$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.09250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x584b…5c81backed Under51c1,524$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.762100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83f2…28e5backed Over49c1,520$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x091e…ba9bbacked Over49c1,515$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d66…4b95backed Over49c1,487$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf511…c82cbacked Over49c1,472$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…2d5ebacked Under51c1,339$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.11540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00bc…e451backed Over50c1,338$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9297…c985backed Under51c1,337$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.13250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0619…2f68backed Under50c1,282$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6413100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe89f…4a48backed Over49c1,272$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f86…64f5backed Under50c1,238$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.86250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked Over50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60013750.4%69 W · 68 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over47c1,191$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.262,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf689…ae5abacked Under50c1,156$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b4a…4c21backed Over50c1,154$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d83…0ef7backed Under51c1,112$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59b9…f169backed Under51c1,104$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.96250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over48c1,100$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.9921247.2%100 W · 112 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over47c1,080$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.33,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6b1a…42c9backed Over50c1,070$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f4c…a6a1backed Under53c1,018$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.411361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+78.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3482…b4a7backed Under51c1,015$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.35450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a7…87b6backed Under52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.545050%25 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5479…c560backed Under51c928$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.72250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490b…eec9backed Over49c854.33$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4195745.6%26 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under51c833.77$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.556,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc03…b245backed Over50c662$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over47c652.24$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.944,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over48c585.33$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.961,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over48c445.73$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.951,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Under52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6240344.4%179 W · 224 L-23.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over9c311.55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.952,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Over48c224.8$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.938242.9%164 W · 218 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Under50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10035849.7%178 W · 180 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1629…8510backed Under53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6810249%50 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f7…d243backed Under50c178$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under52c162$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.388,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd430…d313backed Under53c140.79$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.17580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+46%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x180f…aa51backed Under50c140$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+28.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Under52c129.92$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3655347.9%265 W · 288 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Under54c115.15$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.151,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Over48c110$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.81,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over49c101.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7584150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Under53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4742348.5%205 W · 218 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8510…57e6backed Under53c87.86$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.299040%36 W · 54 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dab…029dbacked Over48c83.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406435.9%23 W · 41 L-6.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-23.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under52c82.51$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.660945.8%279 W · 330 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Over45c77.65$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.151,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Over46c75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.523651.3%121 W · 115 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea66…0689backed Over50c69$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x853d…6c4abacked Over50c68$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under50c62.23$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1178648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.