Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddba46858780acab397c2b60826efa6e8749fd2a4bd4abcca8c941811999cc3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x900e…0d1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,240$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 743.73$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 522$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 69c | 423.94$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.51 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 61c | 396.57$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.13 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 34c | 285.75$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 285.09$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 48c | 281.14$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.96 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 272.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff2…68a2backed Yes | 36c | 247.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +6,262.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 35c | 235.65$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 231.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 227$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.61 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 202.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 179.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 48c | 179.77$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.89 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9d…ba5dbacked Yes | 60c | 150.66$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 57c | 145.09$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 58c | 142.04$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…8148backed Yes | 45c | 138.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 20c | 133$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…483cbacked Yes | 68c | 129.62$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 29c | 128.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 13c | 121.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 39c | 117.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 61c | 117.19$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 53c | 106.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 21c | 102.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…0002backed Yes | 49c | 101.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x734c…94dfbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…53e5backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 31c | 95.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 85.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 60c | 82.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 75c | 79.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 39c | 79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e10…b8d4backed Yes | 20c | 78.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 36c | 76.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 18c | 74.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 67c | 74.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 30c | 65.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…7275backed Yes | 25c | 62.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 56c | 61.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 61.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…d55dbacked Yes | 49c | 57.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aba…34a2backed Yes | 21c | 57.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 22c | 53.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 55c | 53.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 63c | 50.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…070cbacked No | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 57c | 49.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 26c | 44.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked Yes | 26c | 43.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 61c | 39.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 57c | 36.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 36.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 79c | 35.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…4894backed Yes | 57c | 35.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 61c | 28.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 27.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 58c | 25.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…76efbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 56c | 18.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 78c | 16.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 61c | 16.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.