Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bcb2765bdaa81aceaba1a575812609779ebc7e9a0e53fe742f379ebf7a3f032
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 757.64$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.06 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 59c | 291.8$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.76 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba4a…85a8backed No | 76c | 263.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 263$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…0d1bbacked Yes | 8c | 250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 224.24$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 202.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 38c | 176.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 63c | 175.78$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 168.51$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 156.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 32c | 156.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9d…ba5dbacked No | 67c | 150.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…0002backed Yes | 68c | 146$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 25c | 138.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 38c | 136.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 73c | 135.39$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 33c | 128.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 126.82$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 67c | 124.86$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 45c | 116.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 43c | 116.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 38c | 107.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 104.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 61c | 102.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 42c | 93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 58c | 86.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 80.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 32c | 78.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 41c | 73.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 73.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…483cbacked No | 60c | 70.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 35c | 68.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…7275backed Yes | 39c | 61.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 34c | 58.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 57.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 32c | 56.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 33c | 53.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 63c | 53.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd475…35c5backed Yes | 35c | 52.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 50c | 51.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 61c | 51.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 50.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 49.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 55c | 49.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 47.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 47.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 59c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 44c | 45.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 44.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 38.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed Yes | 40c | 37.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 36.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 71c | 34.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 44c | 33.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 74c | 33.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 33.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 32.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 32c | 32.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 34c | 31.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 64c | 30.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 40c | 30.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 68c | 30.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…0705backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -62%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…8148backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 45c | 29.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 41c | 27.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…4a1cbacked Yes | 40c | 26.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 64c | 23.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 71c | 21.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 55c | 19.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 68c | 15.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.