Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00a97f8e45158a338ad0eb436ca996eddc12a78b452087ecebbd28d40d51935d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 620.77$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 4c | 522.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.05 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 8c | 435.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 4c | 392.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.13 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 305.12$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.99 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 6c | 261.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.5 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 75c | 230.91$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.52 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 202.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 33c | 183.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed No | 18c | 171.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 66c | 150.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 136.22$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 133.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 133$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 121.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 23c | 119$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 24c | 113.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 110.62$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 106.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 44c | 89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 20c | 74.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 73.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb0…3ad3backed Yes | 23c | 72.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 68.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 76c | 67.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked No | 78c | 66.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 61.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 33c | 58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 20c | 53.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 25c | 49.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 41.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 34c | 37.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57c2…792dbacked Yes | 28c | 36.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 40c | 36.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 75c | 33.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 70c | 22.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f7…1c8fbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 74c | 15.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 78c | 14.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.