Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddee28f4ec4057cfd1c0371051c2dceb9df3cbf1a68a58248750c6a0c09424df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 4ikibamboniof 4ikibamboni, Flame Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Flame Team | 15c | 2,050$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Flame Team | 36c | 1,658$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.85 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed 4ikibamboni | 69c | 1,478$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.22 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Flame Team | 27c | 874.11$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.07 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed 4ikibamboni | 68c | 822.31$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.61 | 217 | 69.1%150 W · 67 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…ed67backed Flame Team | 45c | 767.45$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.19 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Flame Team | 33c | 699.98$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.49 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked 4ikibamboni | 65c | 698.86$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.97 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed 4ikibamboni | 56c | 515.52$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.15 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…87e7backed Flame Team | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.44 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Flame Team | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Flame Team | 48c | 475.23$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.23 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked 4ikibamboni | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked 4ikibamboni | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…fa33backed 4ikibamboni | 61c | 284.26$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…f4dfbacked Flame Team | 39c | 269.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Flame Team | 38c | 258.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.13 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…6ba2backed 4ikibamboni | 60c | 248.34$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Flame Team | 41c | 234.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Flame Team | 42c | 193.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed 4ikibamboni | 80c | 181$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Flame Team | 34c | 178.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed 4ikibamboni | 54c | 170.37$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Flame Team | 14c | 162.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked 4ikibamboni | 53c | 154.11$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.43 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…477dbacked 4ikibamboni | 62c | 135.39$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Flame Team | 40c | 130.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a83…0be8backed Flame Team | 46c | 116.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Flame Team | 15c | 106.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked 4ikibamboni | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -8.5wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked 4ikibamboni | 53c | 100.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…27f6backed Flame Team | 41c | 97.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Flame Team | 44c | 85.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Flame Team | 47c | 83.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed 4ikibamboni | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 137 | 64.2%88 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Flame Team | 43c | 74.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeab…fd91backed Flame Team | 43c | 69.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed Flame Team | 40c | 65.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2661…6c28backed Flame Team | 30c | 58.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…c94abacked Flame Team | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed 4ikibamboni | 57c | 58.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…0747backed 4ikibamboni | 56c | 53.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed 4ikibamboni | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed 4ikibamboni | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b23…a0fdbacked 4ikibamboni | 53c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed 4ikibamboni | 71c | 35.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed 4ikibamboni | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed 4ikibamboni | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805b…ee0cbacked Flame Team | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed 4ikibamboni | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…051abacked 4ikibamboni | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed 4ikibamboni | 80c | 18.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked 4ikibamboni | 57c | 17.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed 4ikibamboni | 68c | 16.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner4ikibamboni won
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner4ikibamboni won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.