Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bfd82bcb4804e23fa1238f18842915de10e26b70d907bd8fe8d56336ba7eee1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 4ikibamboniof 4ikibamboni, Flame Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2586…f071backed 4ikibamboni | 76c | 4,222$3,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.43 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Flame Team | 30c | 3,504$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.24 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked 4ikibamboni | 56c | 3,270$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.95 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Flame Team | 44c | 1,850$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Flame Team | 26c | 1,622$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 4ikibamboni | 73c | 1,606$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.82 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Flame Team | 28c | 1,498$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.19 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed 4ikibamboni | 66c | 1,460$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.4 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Flame Team | 30c | 1,410$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.82 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked 4ikibamboni | 70c | 1,389$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.39 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Flame Team | 47c | 1,279$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.41 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed Flame Team | 39c | 1,016$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Flame Team | 44c | 1,008$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.8 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Flame Team | 47c | 765.94$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3752…2f08backed 4ikibamboni | 63c | 660.14$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.05 | 344 | 42.2%145 W · 199 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed 4ikibamboni | 74c | 585.86$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.06 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Flame Team | 35c | 575.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked 4ikibamboni | 70c | 517.35$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.28 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked 4ikibamboni | 68c | 413.99$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.1 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked 4ikibamboni | 68c | 359.82$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.34 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Flame Team | 30c | 321.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Flame Team | 25c | 299.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed 4ikibamboni | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed 4ikibamboni | 72c | 282.12$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.14 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed 4ikibamboni | 63c | 277.7$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.75 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a83…0be8backed Flame Team | 23c | 273.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked 4ikibamboni | 70c | 248.87$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 150 | 69.3%104 W · 46 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…1f72backed 4ikibamboni | 67c | 243.88$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.48 | 318 | 65.1%207 W · 111 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Flame Team | 23c | 212.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Flame Team | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Flame Team | 24c | 173.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked 4ikibamboni | 74c | 166.6$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Flame Team | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Flame Team | 38c | 148.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked 4ikibamboni | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Flame Team | 36c | 129.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed 4ikibamboni | 52c | 120.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked 4ikibamboni | 59c | 115.9$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…6929backed Flame Team | 49c | 113.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked 4ikibamboni | 65c | 111.94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Flame Team | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed 4ikibamboni | 53c | 101.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…1873backed 4ikibamboni | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed 4ikibamboni | 73c | 94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed Flame Team | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed 4ikibamboni | 73c | 64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 217 | 69.1%150 W · 67 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked 4ikibamboni | 74c | 60.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked 4ikibamboni | 71c | 60.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed 4ikibamboni | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…75f2backed Flame Team | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked 4ikibamboni | 72c | 50.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +7.1wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked 4ikibamboni | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed 4ikibamboni | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976f…8a71backed 4ikibamboni | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b32…5146backed 4ikibamboni | 72c | 38.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 253 | 56.5%143 W · 110 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Flame Team | 27c | 37.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 4ikibamboni | 70c | 25.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed 4ikibamboni | 53c | 23.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…0566backed 4ikibamboni | 65c | 21.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked 4ikibamboni | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs4ikibamboni won
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner4ikibamboni won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.