TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
4ikibamboniof 4ikibamboni, Flame Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,178
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,309

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,178 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3413…8ff2backed Flame Team50c4,894$2,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,446.7847646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Flame Team54c3,364$1,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8051,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed 4ikibamboni51c2,477$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.271,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 4ikibamboni49c2,125$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.051,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Flame Team24c1,692$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.7948057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Flame Team19c1,548$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.3651544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked 4ikibamboni67c1,236$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.061,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Flame Team52c1,112$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.4747650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed 4ikibamboni59c963.88$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.5971143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked 4ikibamboni44c938.94$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.795342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Flame Team50c880.95$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.951,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Flame Team20c800$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.196245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Flame Team54c760.66$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.548053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked 4ikibamboni73c759.48$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.2279859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked 4ikibamboni58c603.27$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.981,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Flame Team54c599.98$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.9957449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed 4ikibamboni46c499.64$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.9674549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked 4ikibamboni53c490.88$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.511,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed 4ikibamboni48c457.31$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.5391553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked 4ikibamboni56c454.47$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.551,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed 4ikibamboni50c450$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.719458.8%114 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Flame Team52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20834442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked 4ikibamboni79c390$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.277458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed 4ikibamboni51c386.78$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.120642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked 4ikibamboni48c355.18$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.761,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 4ikibamboni58c338.97$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.122,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed 4ikibamboni54c314.23$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.2526147.9%125 W · 136 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 4ikibamboni52c309.95$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.882,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed 4ikibamboni50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15037745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked Flame Team44c255$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.229047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed 4ikibamboni54c235$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.9825956.8%147 W · 112 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked 4ikibamboni51c230$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.732756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked 4ikibamboni76c229.13$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1315069.3%104 W · 46 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed 4ikibamboni55c200.9$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.4116055.6%89 W · 71 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd241…6c35backed 4ikibamboni77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463658.3%21 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+39.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked 4ikibamboni45c196.78$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2340442.3%171 W · 233 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed 4ikibamboni50c189.6$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.612065.8%79 W · 41 L+15.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+25%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed 4ikibamboni56c156$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2517443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked Flame Team23c150$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4731052.6%163 W · 147 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x888d…290cbacked 4ikibamboni57c138.9$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.61050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d6…423dbacked 4ikibamboni74c130$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.923151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Flame Team45c116.47$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9578516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xec61…f8a1backed Flame Team20c111$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.22334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed 4ikibamboni57c105.73$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2534041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ec9…1873backed Flame Team18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1819839.4%78 W · 120 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed 4ikibamboni52c98.88$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4638759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e1d…2b19backed 4ikibamboni71c93.77$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.196759.7%40 W · 27 L+11.3wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+32.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xdc89…095cbacked 4ikibamboni52c92.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.583852.6%20 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Flame Team33c87.21$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.381,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed 4ikibamboni57c85.07$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5393546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ce8…75f2backed 4ikibamboni48c82.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9512132.2%39 W · 82 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Flame Team49c81.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9281345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41a0…87e7backed 4ikibamboni49c71.93$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6110933%36 W · 73 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked 4ikibamboni55c69.09$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0991356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed Flame Team20c61.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2314825%37 W · 111 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Flame Team54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.418356.8%104 W · 79 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Flame Team36c59.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.474337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8649…ba57backed 4ikibamboni55c58.18$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.188040%32 W · 48 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked 4ikibamboni51c57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9328145.6%128 W · 153 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43a8…d77fbacked 4ikibamboni47c56.33$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.84768.1%32 W · 15 L+7.1wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+28.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked 4ikibamboni74c56$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.866545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b6f…aab3backed 4ikibamboni52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2442660.1%256 W · 170 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Flame Team46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2317340.5%70 W · 103 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked 4ikibamboni77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.569033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Flame Team43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked 4ikibamboni56c46.09$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1615342.5%65 W · 88 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0452…843cbacked 4ikibamboni75c44$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.833253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed 4ikibamboni56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.751553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Flame Team52c37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1447358.6%277 W · 196 L+25.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Flame Team36c37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3228336.4%103 W · 180 L+1.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ca2…088ebacked Flame Team36c37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.324742.6%20 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed 4ikibamboni60c34.27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.718645.3%39 W · 47 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4787…db20backed 4ikibamboni53c33.22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.743964.1%25 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked 4ikibamboni55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.514655.5%81 W · 65 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa781…8745backed 4ikibamboni77c29.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.834650%23 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed 4ikibamboni43c25.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2521344.1%94 W · 119 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2488…ff0ebacked Flame Team40c25.05$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Flame Team48c23.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4438244.5%170 W · 212 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eba…cb3dbacked 4ikibamboni54c22.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.216056.7%34 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed 4ikibamboni50c21.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.719658.3%56 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c7e…b429backed 4ikibamboni57c19.3$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.