South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde3cb54da5ad14e907484f12426bd65bfe8485cd4c227ef3ca60ab1e1bd616ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 64c | 30,000$19,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,800 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 36c | 29,502$10,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,620.82 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 9c | 4,680$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.7 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.99 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 66c | 757.56$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.57 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 9c | 668$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…e226backed No | 6c | 542.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Yes | 69c | 446.22$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.33 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 36c | 399.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 27c | 349.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 6c | 258.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 9c | 221$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed No | 18c | 172.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a8…2a71backed Yes | 64c | 106.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 86 | 68.6%59 W · 27 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 37c | 89.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…6db2backed No | 34c | 76.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 76c | 71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…c744backed No | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 31c | 39.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…17e3backed Yes | 61c | 38.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 73c | 27.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 37c | 27.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…f2e3backed Yes | 62c | 26.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…2354backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Yes | 74c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will CF Monterrey win on 2025-12-06?No won
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.