World Politics · resolved market
Hong Kong Election: Geographical Constituency Seat Turnover >40%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde51c77847aba59bea1f9eb71fcb35e93807f21c22799541ac0dae4f1c521142
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,698$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a2…93c0backed No | 67c | 578.03$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9656…474dbacked Yes | 33c | 561.98$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +202.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5a…5b65backed Yes | 35c | 436.79$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…4e62backed No | 37c | 429$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…756ebacked Yes | 51c | 372.89$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…72c6backed No | 72c | 353.65$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…6090backed No | 77c | 273.99$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 10c | 254.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8b…dec7backed No | 74c | 235.83$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…e380backed Yes | 65c | 222.54$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…7c35backed No | 18c | 213.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked No | 43c | 173.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8952…43eabacked Yes | 27c | 171.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +265.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…a626backed Yes | 73c | 164.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd7…9ec4backed No | 66c | 145.93$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd5…d941backed Yes | 53c | 131.22$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…0066backed No | 23c | 128$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b19…bbd6backed Yes | 40c | 124.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 31c | 117.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.62 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes | 77c | 117.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2680…faf5backed Yes | 52c | 101.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 39c | 98.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 57c | 86.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398f…5ababacked No | 70c | 60.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…8d7abacked No | 63c | 39.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…6741backed No | 70c | 33.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…4acebacked No | 62c | 32.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…31c9backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…8a35backed No | 79c | 24.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285e…ccd3backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.