MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde6db65286298290377f14e8788c83ac4fca6a0385ad5da3910fae60304bb944
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 3,188$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.52 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 44c | 1,340$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.5 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…95b7backed Under | 52c | 1,069$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.69 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 51c | 764.39$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.09 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 55c | 684.49$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.63 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 339.03$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.42 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Under | 44c | 297.37$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.84 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Over | 66c | 297.22$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.31 | 122 | 65.6%80 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 42c | 278.67$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.04 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 42c | 278.67$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.04 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc75…5431backed Under | 42c | 278.64$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…58c9backed Under | 42c | 278.64$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 36c | 225.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.18 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 6c | 220.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 26c | 191.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.43 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…f736backed Under | 42c | 167.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…c9b5backed Under | 55c | 147.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.11 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 41c | 93.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 42c | 91.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 42c | 91.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Under | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 51c | 27.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 61c | 25.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Over | 60c | 21.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresNo Run won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.