MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd853a67bba9de9a21c4e2b4a0418eb60d6fa1628d0cb374e0f2016b467a86ba7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e2f…aaf8backed Over | 35c | 17,000$5,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,109.98 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Under | 62c | 7,315$4,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,535.51 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 68c | 1,801$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f9…6910backed Under | 75c | 1,393$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 66c | 1,169$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.05 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 1,093$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.99 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 62c | 1,028$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.23 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Under | 62c | 788.06$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.6 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…94a7backed Under | 75c | 689.5$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.13 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Under | 23c | 602.92$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.87 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 69c | 524.04$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Over | 77c | 394.47$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 182 | 43.4%79 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 41c | 381.17$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.52 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 47c | 305.01$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.9 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…95b7backed Under | 69c | 293.41$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.36 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 61c | 272.17$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.15 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 43c | 235.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.55 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 21c | 196.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.86 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd421…7155backed Over | 57c | 171.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 66c | 144.29$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 37c | 97.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 61c | 77.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…47f4backed Over | 36c | 51.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 63c | 45.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 30c | 40.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 53c | 38.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Under | 32c | 38.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 34c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 63c | 15.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 3.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresNo Run won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.